Why Study Sea Level Rise?

In 2009 researchers from the University of New South Wales presented data to update the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 predictions of future, global sea level rise [1]. The Copenhagen Diagnosis [2] was informed by a deeper understanding of ice sheet reactions to global warming and satellite observations of sea level changes. The findings suggested that by 2100, sea levels will have increased by 2 meters, a prediction some 80% higher than those made in 2007  [2] (figure 1).

The findings placed 175.10 million people around the world in areas at risk from sea level rise [3].

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Figure 1: IPCC sea level rise projections and more recent satellite observations [2]

The 80% increase in the predicted rate of sea level rise has global implications; the potential destruction of island nations, salt water inundation of agricultural lands and the forced protection of major cities (figure 2).

Figure 2: The Southeast of England, demonstrating current sea levels (top) and potential loss of land with a 2 meter rise in sea level (bottom). [4]

Figure 2 offers an example of the destruction that could be seen world-wide if sea levels were allowed to rise unchecked. If the predictions of The Copenhagen Diagnosis are correct, the South East of England will stand to loose a huge amount of land. Such a point is made particularly worrying by the presence of  London, the capital city and financial centre of the UK directly in the path of destruction.

Whilst such findings demonstrate the need to take notice of sea level rise and anthropogenic influences on the climate, they must also be considered with appreciation of past changes in sea level rise and the predictions from other measurement techniques. 

Without such precautions, the over-reliance on satellite measurements could lead to incorrect predictions of change, due to an inability to cross reference results. With such a huge amount of the global population at risk and the potential gargantuan economic losses if sea level rise was to occur unchecked, mistakes caused by over reliance and ignorance must be avoided.

The following blogs will consider past sea level changes with relation to the 2009 predictions and  document the various methods of measuring sea level rise.

[1] IPCC, (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

[2] Allison, I. , N.L. Bindoff, R.A. Bindschadler, P.M. Cox, N. de Noblet, M.H. England, J.E. Francis, N. Gruber, A.M. Haywood, D.J. Karoly, G. Kaser, C. Le Quéré, T.M. Lenton, M.E. Mann, B.I. McNeil, A.J. Pitman, S. Rahmstorf, E. Rignot, H.J. Schellnhuber, S.H. Schneider, S.C. Sherwood, R.C.J. Somerville, K. Steffen, E.J. Steig, M. Visbeck, A.J. Weaver, (2009) The Copenhagen Diagnosis, Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science. The University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney, Australia.

[3] Rowley, R.J., J.C. Kostelnick, D. Braaten, X. Li & J. Meisel, (2007) Risk of Rising Sea Level to Population and Land Area. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 88, 9

[4] TerraMetrics, 2011. http://flood.firetree.net/?II=43.3251,-101,6015&z=13&m=7